Ibindi · Uburezi · iminota 7

Roulette n'Uburezi bw'Imibare

Uruziga rwa roulette rworoshya kwiyumvisha amahirwe. Dore uko warukoresha mu isomo udashishikariza urusimbi.

Igisubizo kigufi

Ibisubizo mirongo itatu na birindwi bifite amahirwe angana, ubwishyu budahinduka, ubwigenge, agaciro gateganyijwe kabi kazwi n'amateka maremare y'abantu babyumva nabi. Roulette isobanura agaciro gateganyijwe, ihindagurikaimibareIhindagurikaIgipimo cy'uko ibisubizo bikwirakwira kure y'agaciro gateganyijwe. Riri hejuru kuri straight up, hasi ku matega yishyura kimwe ku kindi.Soma byose →, itegeko ry'imibare mininiimibareItegeko ry'imibare mininiImpuzandengo y'ibisubizo byigenga yegera agaciro gateganyijwe uko umubare w'amagerageza wiyongera.Soma byose →, ikosa ry'umukinnyi w'urusimbi, isuzuma ry'ibitekerezo (hypothesis testing) n'ikibazo cy'isabukuru neza kurusha ibiceri cyangwa udusoro.

urwego rw'ibishoboka

37, bingana

ibitekerezo bisobanurwa

≥ 8

ibikoresho kuri uru rubuga

ku buntu, muri mushakisha

isomo rya zeru

EV = −1/37, buri gihe

Kuki roulette

Igiceri gifite ibisubizo bibiri, agasoro gatandatu; byombi ni bito cyane ku buryo bitagaragaza neza ikibazo cy'isabukuruimibareIkibazo cy'isabukuruUmubare w'abantu ukenewe kugira ngo babiri bashobora kuba bafite isabukuru imwe, cyangwa umubare w'amazunguruka ukenewe kugira ngo umubare ushobora kugaruka. Ku ruziga rw'utuzu 37, amazunguruka 8 arahagije ngo amahirwe arenge kimwe cya kabiri.Soma byose → cyangwa isuzuma rya chi-squarelaboratwariIsuzuma rya chi-squareIsuzuma ry'ibarurishamibare rigereranya inshuro buri kazu kasohotse n'izateganyijwe n/37. Rikoreshwa mu kumenya niba uruziga rubogamye.Soma byose →. Ipaki y'amakarita igira kwibuka. Roulette ifite ibisubizo 37 bifite amahirwe angana, ubwishyuamafarangaUbwishyuIbyo itega ryatsinze rigarura, bivugwa nka “X kuri 1” hiyongereyeho itega rigarurwa.Soma byose → budahinduka butuma agaciro gateganyijwe kabarwa mu murongo umwe, ubwigenge buturuka ku miterere y'igikoresho, n'inyungu ya kazino nto bihagije ku buryo yihisha mu mukino umwe ariko nini bihagije ku buryo iganza umwaka wose. Inafite ibinyejana bibiri by'amakosa y'imitekerereze yanditswe yo gusesengura.

Igiceri, agasoro n'amakarita bisimburwa n'ibisubizo 37 bifite amahirwe angana bya roulette.

Isuzuma rya Chi-Square

Uruhererekane rw'amasomo

isomoigitekerezourugero rwa rouletteigikoresho kuri uru rubuga

1amahirwe nk'ibarurap(itega) = n/37Mubazi y'Odds za Roulette

2agaciro gateganyijweEV = (n/37)(36/n − 1) − (37 − n)/37 = −1/37Umwubatsi w'Amatega

3ubwigenge n'itegeko ryo gukuba(18/37)² ku mitukura ibiriAmahirwe y'Uruhererekane rw'Ibisubizo

4icyuzuzo na “nibura rimwe”1 − (36/37)³⁷ = 63,7%Amahirwe muri Roulette

5ihindagurika n'ikinyuranyo gisanzweσ = 5,84 (straight up) ugereranyije na 1,00 (umutuku), EV imweIhindagurika

6itegeko ry'imibare minini (n'ibyo ritavuga)impuzandengo igera ahantu hamwe; igiteranyo kirushaho kwitandukanyaKwegerana mu Gihe Kirekire

7ikosa ry'umukinnyi w'urusimbiimikara 26, 1913Ikosa ry'Umukinnyi w'Urusimbi

8urugendo rutunguranye no gushira igishoroformula yo gushira igishoro k'umukinnyi w'urusimbiMubazi y'Ibyago byo Gushira Igishoro

9isuzuma ry'ibitekerezochi-square ku tuzu 37Isesengura ry'Ukubogama k'Uruziga rwa Roulette

10ikibazo cy'isabukurugusubiramo mu mazunguruka 8, 56%Ikibazo: Uruziga rw'Isabukuru

11igerageza rya Monte Carloimikino 10.000 mu isegondaIgerageza ry'Ingamba za Roulette

12impamvu uburyo bwo gutega bunanirwakuringanira kw'agaciro gateganyijwe (linearity)Ese Washobora Gutsinda Roulette?

Kwigisha utigisha urusimbi

Koresha amafaranga yo gukina gusa n'Umukino w'Igerageza, utagira amatega nyayo. Tangirira ku gaciro gateganyijweimibareAgaciro gateganyijweIgisubizo mpuzandengo kuri buri tega mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 y'itega kuri buri tega risanzwe ry'i Burayi.Soma byose → kandi ukomeze kukagarukaho: buri mwitozo urangira na “kandi agaciro gateganyijwe ni −1/37 by'itega”. Koresha uburyo bwo gutega nk'ingero zivuguruza aho kuba uburyo bwo gukurikiza: umwitozo ni ugushaka inenge, kandi igerageza rituma inenge igaragara mu masegonda. Shyiramo amateka y'abantu bahombye. Isomo ni uko imibare itsinda, ari cyo kinyuranyo cy'iyamamaza.

Imyitozo ikora

Saba abanyeshuri guteganya amazunguruka azaba mbere yo gusubiramo, hanyuma bakine Umukino w'Igerageza incuro icumi (ikibazo cy'isabukuru). Basabe kwandika “uburyo” muri editor y'ingamba maze bakine imikino 10.000 (kuringanira kw'agaciro gateganyijwe). Basabe kubara amahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → y'uruhererekane rwo mu 1913, hanyuma ay'uko uruhererekane nk'urwo rwaba ahantu runaka mu myaka mirongo itanu ya Monte Carlo (itandukaniro riri hagati y'ikintu cyihariye n'ikintu runaka). Basabe gushaka akazuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → “kabogamye” mu mateka y'amazunguruka atabogamye, hanyuma bavange amakuru (igereranya ryinshi).

Uko ibyo abanyeshuri bibwira bipfa vuba (ibyo ishuri risanzwe rikeka ugereranyije n'ukuri)

amazunguruka mbere yo gusubiramo: bakeka ≈ 19, ukuri 8

8 ugereranyije na 19

p(≥1 gufata mu mazunguruka 37): bakeka 100%, ukuri 63,7%

63,7% ugereranyije na 100%

p(umutuku nyuma y'imitukura 10): bakeka “make”, ukuri 48,65%

48,65%

imikino yunguka, Martingale: bakeka ≈ 95%, ukuri ≈ 78%

78% ugereranyije na 95%

igisubizo cy'impuzandengo, Martingale: bakeka “cyiza”, ukuri ni kibi

kibi

050100

Buri kinyuranyo ni isomo. Icya nyuma ni amasomo yose.

Gusoma Amateka y'Amazunguruka Yatangajwe Igisobanuro cy'Ibarurishamibare

Impamvu bigumaho

Abanyeshuri bibuka imikaraitegaUmukaraItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umukara. Mu Gifaransa: noir.Soma byose → 26, uruziga rwa Jagger, n'igihe igerageza ryerekanye uburyo bwabo buhomba. Amahirwe asobanuwe mu buryo bw'igitekerezo gusa yibagirana mbere y'ikizamini; uruziga ntirwibagirana. Umurongo w'imyitwarire myiza urasobanutse: igisha imibare ituma umukino uba itega ribi, ukoresheje umukino ubwawo, maze abanyeshuri bazakina urusimbi nyuma nibura bazamenye igiciro.

Abakinnyi ba Roulette Bamamaye

Ibibazo

Ese bikwiriye abanyeshuri bo mu kigero cy'ishuri?

Ukoresheje amafaranga yo gukina gusa kandi ugasobanura neza ko inyungu ya kazinoimibareInyungu ya kazinoIgice cya buri tega kazino igumana ku mpuzandengo: 2,70% muri roulette y'i Burayi.Soma byose → ari yo somo, integanyanyigisho nyinshi zisanzwe zikoresha udusoro na tombola; roulette ni urugero rukungahaye kurushaho rw'ibyo.

Mwarimu yagombye gutangirira kuri paji iyihe?

Inyungu ya Kazino muri Roulette, hanyuma Umukino w'Igerageza, hanyuma Igerageza ry'Ingamba za Roulette.

Ese Umukino w'Igerageza utekanye mu ishuri?

Nta mafaranga nyayo ufite, nta konti, kandi nta mahuza ajya ku bigo by'urusimbi.

Akanya k'urwenya

Ibisubizo mirongo itatu na birindwi, inyungu ya kazino imwe, ibinyejana bibiri by'amakosa yo kwigiraho.

Inkomoko

Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3rd ed., 1968. Gushira igishoro k'umukinnyi w'urusimbi, igice cya XIV.
Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Igice cya 13, roulette.

byasuzumwe 2026-09-28icyitegererezo: uruziga rw'i Burayi, zeru imweuburyo bwakoreshejwe ↗inkomoko ↗