Amahirwe y'Uruhererekane rw'Ibisubizo muri Roulette
Uruhererekane rurerure rw'ibara rimwe ni ibisanzwe. Kandi nta cyo rusobanura ku izunguruka rikurikira.
Imitukura itanu ikurikiranye: 2,7%. Icumi: 0,074%. Mu mukino w'amazunguruka 200, uruhererekane rw'atandatu rw'ibara rimwe rugaragara kenshi kurusha uko rutagaragara.
Uruhererekane rw'ibihombo ruza kangahe
Itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku ruziga rufite zeru imwe ritsindwa amazunguruka 19 kuri 37. Buri murongo ni amahirwe y'uko amazunguruka runaka yose atsindwa, n'ibyo umukinnyi wa Martingale, ukuba kabiri itega nyuma ya buri gihombo, aba amaze guhomba icyo gihe.
| ibihombo bikurikirana | amahirwe | hafi 1 kuri | ibyahombwe kugeza ubu | itega rikurikira |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51,4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26,4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13,5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7,0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3,6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1,8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0,94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0,48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0,25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0,13% | 784 | $1.023 | $1.024 |
| 11 | 0,065% | 1527 | $2.047 | $2.048 |
| 12 | 0,034% | 2974 | $4.095 | $4.096 |
| 13 | 0,017% | 5792 | $8.191 | $8.192 |
| 14 | 0,0089% | 11279 | $16.383 | $16.384 |
| 15 | 0,0046% | 21965 | $32.767 | $32.768 |
Amahirwe ni 19/37 akubwe ubwayo rimwe kuri buri gihombo, ubaze uhereye ku izunguruka runaka. Umukino muremure ugira amazunguruka menshi uruhererekane nk'urwo rushobora gutangiriraho, bityo mu mugoroba umwe birashoboka cyane kurusha uko umurongo umwe ubyerekana.
Uruhererekane rumwe
AmahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → y'uko amazunguruka k akurikira yose aba umutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose → ni (18/37)ᵏ. Abiri: 23,7%. Atanu: 2,7%. Icumi: 0,074%, hafi 1 muri 1.350. Makumyabiri: 1 muri miliyoni 1,8. Makumyabiri n'atandatu, agahigo ka Monte Carlo: 1 muri miliyoni 137. Aya ni amahirwe y'uruhererekane runaka rutangirira ku izunguruka runaka, ari cyo kibazo hafi ya nta muntu ubaza koko.
Mu mukino
Ikibazo abantu baba bashaka kuvuga ni “ese uruhererekane rwa k ruzagaragara ahantu runaka mu mukino wanjye?”, kandi igisubizo kiruta kure (18/37)ᵏ kuko umukino w'amazunguruka 200 utanga hafi ahantu 200 uruhererekane rwatangirira. Uruhererekane rw'atandatu cyangwa arenga y'ibara rimwe, umutuku cyangwa umukaraitegaUmukaraItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umukara. Mu Gifaransa: noir.Soma byose →, rugaragara mu mukino w'amazunguruka 200 hafi 94% by'igihe; umunani cyangwa arenga hafi 47%; icumi cyangwa arenga hafi 14%. Vuga ibara mbere maze amahirwe agabanuke, agere hafi kuri 75%, 27% na 7%. Umukinnyi wicara umugoroba wose azabona uruhererekane rurerure buri mugoroba.
Impamvu Martingale ibyitaho
Buri ruhererekane rw'amategaingambaUruhererekane rw'amategaItegeko iryo ari ryo ryose rihindura itega hashingiwe ku bisubizo byabanje. Impererekane mbi ziryongera nyuma yo gutsindwa, inziza nyuma yo gutsinda.Soma byose → rubi rugira uburebure bw'uruhererekane rurucamo: ibihombo bitandatu uhereye ku ibanze rya $10 ku mbibi za $500, icumi kuri FibonacciingambaFibonacciUruhererekane rw'amatega rukurikiza urutonde 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: intambwe imwe imbere nyuma yo gutsindwa, intambwe ebyiri inyuma nyuma yo gutsinda.Soma byose →, bitanu ku gukuba gatatu kuri dazeniitegaDazeni1–12, 13–24 cyangwa 25–36, yishyura 2:1.Soma byose →. Amahirwe y'uruhererekane rw'ibihombo bitandatu ku matega yishyura kimwe ku kindi ni (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1,8% kuri buri gerageza, kandi umukino w'amazunguruka 200 ushobora kugira amagerageza agera ku 100, bityo gucika biza hafi mu mikino ine muri itanu y'ubwo burebure. Amahirwe y'uruhererekane rw'ibisubizo muri roulette ni yo mpamvu urwo rukuta rudakunze kubura.
Imibare ishyushye n'ikonje
Iryo barura rimwe rikora no kuri straight upitegaStraight upUmubare umwe, yishyura 35:1.Soma byose →. Mu mazunguruka 300, umubare uteganyijwe kuri buri mubare ni 8,1; ikinyuranyo gisanzweimibareIkinyuranyo gisanzweUmuzi wa kare w'ihindagurika; intera isanzwe y'igisubizo uvuye ku gaciro gateganyijwe.Soma byose → ni hafi 2,8. Umubare runaka uzasohoka inshuro 15 undi 2 ku bw'amahirwe gusa, buri gihe. Ikibaho cy'ibisubizo kigaragaza imibare “ishyushye” kiba kigaragaza impera ya normal distribution. Laboratwari isobanura umubare w'amazunguruka bisaba mbere y'uko umubare ushyushyeigihuhaUmubare ushyushyeUmubare wasohotse kenshi kurusha uko byari biteganyijwe vuba aha. Ku ruziga rutabogamye nta cyo uteganya.Soma byose → ugira icyo usobanura (ibihumbi, ku ruziga rumwe rwamenyekanye).
Ukwigenga ni yo ngingo y'ingenzi
Uruhererekane rw'imitukura icumi ntirutuma umukara ugira amahirwe menshi, kandi nturutuma n'umutuku ugira amahirwe menshi. Byombi ni 18/37. Uruhererekane rw'ibisubizo ni imiterere y'impererekane zitunguranye kandi kubura kwarwo kwaba ikimenyetso giteye amakenga: impererekane y'amazunguruka 200 idafite uruhererekane rurenze ane yaba ikimenyetso gikomeye cyane cy'uburiganya kurusha ifite uruhererekane rwa cumi na rubiri.
Formula
Ibibazo
Imikara 26 i Monte Carlo ku wa 18 Kanama 1913 ni rwo ruzwi cyane. Imitukura 32 ikurikiranye yavuzwe muri kazino yo muri Amerika mu 1943. Byombi bihuye n'amahirwe hashingiwe ku mazunguruka menshi kazino zikora.
Ni 18/37 uko byagenda kose. Tega icyo gahunda yawe ivuga, cyangwa ntutege.
Oya. Ukubogama kugaragara nk'utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → tumwe dusohoka kenshi mu mazunguruka ibihumbi, si nk'uruhererekane rw'ibara.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Ni amazunguruka angahe y'uruziga rw'i Burayi bisaba, ku mpuzandengo, mbere y'uko buri mubare muri 37 usohoka nibura rimwe?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Hafi amazunguruka 155 ku mpuzandengo; umuhuza ni 147.
Bara igihe cyo gutegereza umubare mushya umwe umwe. Izunguruka rya mbere buri gihe ryerekana umubare mushya. Umaze kubona umubare 1, utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → 36 muri 37 ni dushya, bityo umubare mushya ukurikiraho utwara amazunguruka 37/36 ku mpuzandengo. Umaze kubona imibare k, bitwara 37/(37 − k).
Teranya ibihe byo gutegereza: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4,20 = amazunguruka 155,5.
Igice kinini cy'ibyo ni iherezo. Umubare wa nyuma wonyine utwara amazunguruka 37 ku mpuzandengo, naho imibare itanu ya nyuma hafi 85. Ku ruziga rw'Abanyamerika, igiteranyo nk'icyo gitanga hafi 161. Iki ni ikibazo cy'ukusanya amakuponi (coupon collector’s problem); impuzandengo imwe iva ku ibarura risanzwe.
Mu mazunguruka 37 y'uruziga rw'i Burayi, izunguruka rimwe kuri buri kazu, wagombye gutegereza kubona imibare itandukanye ingahe?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Hafi 23,6. Hafi kimwe cya gatatu cy'imibare, hafi 13, ntisohoka na gato.
Fata umubare umwe, urugero 17. Kuri buri zunguruka ntusohoka ku mahirwe ya 36/37, bityo ubura mu mazunguruka yose 37 ku mahirwe ya (36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0,363.
Buri mubare ufite amahirwe amwe, bityo ku mpuzandengo imibare 37 × 0,363 ≈ 13,4 irabura naho 37 − 13,4 ≈ 23,6 igasohoka, myinshi muri yo kabiri cyangwa kurenza.
Abakinnyi ba roulette bita ibi itegeko rya kimwe cya gatatu (law of thirds). Si itegeko, ni imibare y'ibisubiramo gusa: mu ruhererekane rungana n'uruziga, hafi kimwe cya gatatu cy'imibare ntigisohoka, ku ruziga rutabogamye nk'urundi urwo ari rwo rwose. Ku tuzu 38 umugabane ni (37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0,363 na wo; ku ruziga runini urahagarara hafi ya 1/e ≈ 0,368.
Inshuti yawe ikwereka intonde ebyiri z'amabara 50, umutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose → cyangwa umukaraitegaUmukaraItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umukara. Mu Gifaransa: noir.Soma byose →, buri rumwe bivugwa ko ruva ku ruziga zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icyatsi katafatwa n'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi, irya dazeni cyangwa iry'inkingi; ni ho inyungu ya kazino ikomoka. Nanone: zeru imwe, 0.Soma byose → zitabazwe. Rumwe ruhindura ibara incuro 25 kandi uruhererekane rwarwo rurerure ni rwa gatandatu. Urundi ruhindura incuro 35 kandi ntirwigera rurenga eshatu. Ni uruhe rwahimbwe?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Urwa kabiri. Urutonde nyarwo ruhindura hafi incuro 24 cyangwa 25. Urufite impinduka 35 ruboneka hafi rimwe mu ntonde 500, naho urudafite uruhererekane rurenze eshatu hafi kabiri mu 100.
Buri bara rishya risubiramo iriheruka cyangwa rirahindura, kimwe cya kabiri kuri kimwe cya kabiri, bityo amahirwe 49 yo guhindura atanga impinduka 24,5 ku mpuzandengo, wongereho cyangwa ukuremo hafi 3,5. Mirongo itatu n'eshanu ni intambwe eshatu z'izo hejuru y'impuzandengo; uruziga rutabogamye rutanga impinduka zingana zityo hafi rimwe mu ntonde 500.
Impererekane zivuga inkuru imwe. Urutonde nyarwo rwa 50 rugira uruhererekane rwa kane cyangwa rurenga hafi 98% by'igihe, kandi uruhererekane rwarwo rurerure akenshi ruba urwa gatanu cyangwa urwa gatandatu.
Abantu basabwe guhimba urutonde rutunguranye bahindura kenshi cyane, kuko uruhererekane rwa kane cyangwa rwa gatanu rubagaragarira nk'imiterere. Taylor (2021) yerekana ikimenyetso nk'icyo mu ntonde z'amatera y'igiceri zahimbwe n'abanyeshuri: ibitunguranye nyabyo bigira impererekane nyinshi kurusha uko abantu babyiteze.
Igitabo cy'inkuru za kazino kivuga umukinnyi umubare we wasohotse incuro eshanu zikurikiranye maze kikabyita agahigo. Ibyo ni gake bingana iki ku ruziga rw'i Burayi? Kandi byagombye kuba kangahe ahantu runaka muri kazino imwe ifite ameza 20, buri yose ikora amazunguruka 40 ku isaha, ku manywa na nijoro?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Umubare wavuzwe mbere incuro eshanu zikurikiranye: 1 kuri miliyoni 69. Umubare uwo ari wo wose wongera gusohoka incuro enye nyuma yo gusohoka bwa mbere: 1 kuri miliyoni 1,87. Iyo kazino ikora hafi miliyoni 7 z'amazunguruka ku mwaka, bityo yagombye kubona uruhererekane rwa gatanu incuro eshatu cyangwa enye ku mwaka.
Umubare wavuzwe mbere usohoka ku mahirwe ya 1/37 kuri buri zunguruka, bityo gatanu gukurikiranye bifite amahirwe ya (1/37)⁵ = 1 kuri 69.343.957. Ariko nta muntu uvuga umubare mbere. Icyo ari cyo cyose gisohoka mbere, amazunguruka ane akurikiraho agomba kugisubiramo: (1/37)⁴ = 1 kuri 1.874.161.
Ameza 20 × amazunguruka 40 × amasaha 24 × iminsi 365 = amazunguruka 7.008.000 ku mwaka. Buri zunguruka rishobora gutangiza uruhererekane, bityo kazino iteganya 7.008.000/1.874.161 ≈ impererekane 3,7 za gatanu ku mwaka.
Nta gahigo kemewe k'ubu bwoko kabaho, kandi nta n'ako gakenewe: ikintu kiba gake ku meza amwe kiba ibisanzwe muri kazino yose, kandi inkuru zivugwa ku meza byabereyeho. Iyo nkuru, muri Goldman (2007), ibera ku ruziga rwa zeru ebyiri, aho imibare ari 1 kuri miliyoni 79 na 1 kuri miliyoni 2,09.
Akanya k'urwenya
Uruhererekane rurerure ni ko ibitunguranye bisa.
Inkomoko
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.