Ibihuha · Ibihuha · iminota 6

Igihuha: Imibare Igeze Igihe

“Cumi na karindwi ntiraza mu mazunguruka 150. Igeze igihe.” Si ko biri.

Igisubizo kigufi

Umubare umaze igihe kirekire utaza ufite amahirwe angana neza n'ay'undi wose ku izunguruka rikurikiraho: 1/37. Kwizera ko “ugeze igihe” ni ikosa ry'umukinnyi w'urusimbi rifatanye n'ikibaho cy'ibisubizo.

p(17 ikurikiraho)
1/37, buri gihe
p(nta 17 mu mazunguruka 150)
1,7%
inshuro ibyo biba ahantu runaka
buri gihe
umwanzuro
igihuha

Ibivugwa

Kazino zigaragaza ibisubizo 20 kugeza kuri 500 bya nyuma kandi akenshi zikerekana imibare “ikonje” imaze igihe itaza. Abakinnyi basoma ikibaho, bakabona ko 17 imaze amazunguruka 150 itaza, bakayitegaho kuko bibwira ko igomba kuba igeze igihe. Igitekerezo ni uko mu gihe kirekire buri mubare uza 1/37 by'igihe, bityo umubare uri inyuma ukaba ugomba gufata abandi.

Impamvu atari byo

Amazunguruka arigenga. AgapiraibikoreshoAgapiraAgapira gato koherezwa mu nzira kerekeza mu cyerekezo kinyuranye n'icya rotor. Udupira tw'iki gihe dukozwe muri ivorine cyangwa Teflon, mm 18–21.Soma byose → ntikazi ko 17 imaze igihe itaza, kandi akazuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → gafite ingano kari gafite. Igipimo cy'igihe kirekire kigerwaho kubera kuvangwa, si kubera gukosorwa: nyuma y'andi mazunguruka 10.000, icyuho cy'amazunguruka 150 kiba ari ikosa rito ryo kuzuza imibare, atari uko 17 yaje kenshi bidasanzwe ahubwo ari uko icyitegererezo cyakuze. Itegeko ry'imibare mininiimibareItegeko ry'imibare mininiImpuzandengo y'ibisubizo byigenga yegera agaciro gateganyijwe uko umubare w'amagerageza wiyongera.Soma byose → ntirisaba ko umubare uwo ari wo wose ufata abandi; risaba gusa ko ihindagurika ryabanje riba rito ugereranyije n'igiteranyo.

Inshuro umubare runaka umara nibura amazunguruka k utaza%
amazunguruka 37
36,3%
amazunguruka 74
13,2%
amazunguruka 100
6,5%
amazunguruka 150
1,7%
amazunguruka 200
0,4%
%
018,1536,3%
(36/37)ᵏ. Kubera ko hari imibare 37 kuri buri ruziga muri buri kazino, kubura mu mazunguruka 150 biri kuba ahantu runaka muri iki gihe.

Impamvu bisa n'ukuri

Kubera ko mu bindi bice byose by'ubuzima, kubura bigaragaza ko ikintu kiri hafi kuza: bisi imaze iminota makumyabiri itaza ifite amahirwe menshi yo kuza mu minota itanu ikurikiraho. Ni ukubera ko bisi zigendera kuri gahunda. Roulette nta gahunda igira; igira amahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose →, kandi amahirwe si umugabane ugomba kuzuzwa. Iki gitekerezo ni cyiza ku isi hafi yose ariko ni kibi ku ruziga.

Isuzuma

Andika imibare ijana “ikonje” ivuye ku bibaho by'ibisubizo, maze uyitegeho buri umwe mu mazunguruka 37 akurikiraho. Igipimo cyo kuza kizaba 1/37 kuri buri zunguruka, kimwe n'icy'umubare uwo ari wo wose watoranyijwe ku bw'amahirwe, wongeyeho cyangwa ukuyeho urusaku. Ikibaho cy'ibisubizo gisobanura ibyahise. Nta cyo giteganya ku ruziga rutabogamye, kandi ku ruziga rubogamyelaboratwariUruziga rubogamyeUruziga rufite inenge z'umubiri zituma utuzu tumwe tugira amahirwe arenze 1/37. Ni gake, kandi rutahurwa gusa n'amazunguruka ibihumbi byanditswe.Soma byose → (byasaba amazunguruka ibihumbi kugira ngo bigaragazwe) imibare ishyushyeigihuhaUmubare ushyushyeUmubare wasohotse kenshi kurusha uko byari biteganyijwe vuba aha. Ku ruziga rutabogamye nta cyo uteganya.Soma byose →, si ikonje, ni yo yaba ikwiye gutegwaho.

Ingano y'IcyitegererezoIbisubizo bya Roulette: Gusoma Ikibaho

Igihuha gihindukiye

“Cumi na karindwi irashyushye, yitegeho” ni ikosa rimwe ryahinduwe ikimenyetso. Iyo myemerere yombi ifite agaciro gateganyijweimibareAgaciro gateganyijweIgisubizo mpuzandengo kuri buri tega mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 y'itega kuri buri tega risanzwe ry'i Burayi.Soma byose → kamwe n'ako guhumiriza ugatunga urutoki: −2,70% by'itega. Ku Mukino w'Igerageza, kina amateka maze ubare inshuro umubare ukonjeigihuhaUmubare ukonjeUmubare umaze amazunguruka menshi utasohoka. Ku ruziga rutabogamye, nta makuru utanga ku mazunguruka azaza.Soma byose → uza mu mazunguruka 37 akurikiraho; igisubizo ni hafi 63,7%, neza neza nk'undi mubare wose.

Ibibazo

Ese kazino igaragaza imibare ikonje kugira ngo ishuke abakinnyi?

Iyigaragaza kubera ko abakinnyi babisaba. Ikibaho ni nyacyo kandi nta cyo kimaze.

Bite ho ku mubare umaze amazunguruka 500 utaza?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0,0001%: ni gake, kandi uracyari 1/37 ku izunguruka rikurikiraho. Niba bikomeza kuba ku ruziga rumwe, icyo ni ikibazo cy'ukubogama, kandi igisubizo cyaba ukwirinda uwo mubare.

Ese hari umubare wigeze ugera igihe?

Oya.

Akanya k'urwenya

Amahirwe si umugabane ugomba kuzuzwa.

Amahirwe si umugabane ugomba kuzuzwa.

Inkomoko

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, inyandiko ya 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin, igice cya XIV.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Igice cya 13, roulette.
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