Amahirwe muri Roulette
Amahirwe yose muri roulette ni umubare w'utuzu ugabanyijwe na 37.
p = imibare ifashwe / 37. Umubare umwe: 2,70%. Cumi n'umunani: 48,65%. Amahirwe y'uruhererekane runaka akubwa n'amahirwe y'izunguruka rimwe.
Izunguruka rimwe
Buri kazuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → muri 37 gafite amahirwe angana, bityo amahirwe yo gutsinda muri roulette ku izunguruka rimwe ni ikibazo cyo kubara. Itega ku mibare ine ritsinda 4/37 by'igihe, hafi 10,8%. Nta kindi kiri mu mahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → y'izunguruka rimwe uretse ibyo, ari na yo mpamvu umukino wose ushobora gusesengurwa ku gapapuro gato.
Amazunguruka menshi
Amazunguruka arigenga, bityo amahirwe y'uruhererekane arakubwa. Imitukura ibiri ikurikiranye (umutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose → kabiri): (18/37)² = 23,7%. Umutuku hanyuma zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icyatsi katafatwa n'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi, irya dazeni cyangwa iry'inkingi; ni ho inyungu ya kazino ikomoka. Nanone: zeru imwe, 0.Soma byose →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1,3%. Cumi na karindwi kabiri gukurikiranya: (1/37)² = 0,073%, hafi rimwe muri 1.369. Uko bikurikirana bifite akamaro ku ruhererekane runaka ariko si ku mubare: “umutuku hanyuma umukaraitegaUmukaraItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umukara. Mu Gifaransa: noir.Soma byose →” ni 25,0% ariko “umutuku umwe n'umukara umwe mu mazunguruka abiri, uko byakurikirana kose” ni 50,0%.
Nibura rimwe
Koresha icyuzuzo (complement). Amahirwe yo kudafata na rimwe kuri straight upitegaStraight upUmubare umwe, yishyura 35:1.Soma byose → mu mazunguruka 37 ni (36/37)³⁷ = 36,3%, bityo amahirwe yo gufata nibura rimwe ni 63,7%, si “ibyanze bikunze” abakinnyi benshi bategereje ku mahirwe 37 ya 1 kuri 37. Iryo barura rivuga ko umubare ufite amahirwe agera kuri 1 kuri 3 yo kutagaragara na rimwe mu mazunguruka 37, ari na yo mpamvu ikibaho cy'ibisubizo buri gihe kigaragaza imibare mike “ikonje”.
Igihe giteganyijwe cyo gutegereza
Ku mpuzandengo umubare wa straight up ugaragara rimwe mu mazunguruka 37, ariko gutegereza guhindagurika cyane: igihe cyo hagati (median) cyo gutegereza ni amazunguruka agera kuri 25 (kimwe cya kabiri cy'igihe uza vuba kurushaho) kandi gutegereza kumwe muri makumyabiri kurenza amazunguruka 110. Ibihe byo gutegereza mu buryo bwa geometric bigira umurizo muremure, kandi umukinnyi “uzi” ko umubare ugeze igihe nyuma y'amazunguruka 60 aba avuga ikintu kiba rimwe mu gatanu.
Amakosa asanzwe
Guteranya amahirwe y'ibintu bishobora kubaho byombi (umutuku cyangwa itabangikanye si 36/37; ni 26/37, kuko imibare icumi ari byombi). Gukuba ku bintu biba ku izunguruka rimwe (umutuku kandi itabangikanye ku izunguruka rimwe ni 10/37, si 18/37 × 18/37). Gufata amazunguruka yahise nk'igice cy'uruhererekane urimo gutegaho ubu: nyuma y'imitukura icumi, amahirwe y'uwa cumi n'umwe ni 18/37, si (18/37)¹¹.
Odds muri roulette ni iki, kandi zitandukaniye he n'amahirwe?
Kazino zivuga ubwishyuamafarangaUbwishyuIbyo itega ryatsinze rigarura, bivugwa nka “X kuri 1” hiyongereyeho itega rigarurwa.Soma byose → nk'odds. Umubare umwe utsinda ku mahirwe ya 1/37, bityo odds zo gutsinda muri roulette ku mubare umwe ni 36 kuri 1 zo gutsindwa. Ubwishyu bwa 35 kuri 1 rero bubura initeamafarangaIniteItega ry'ibanze uburyo cyangwa umukinnyi akoresha. Impererekane z'amatega zisobanurwa mu nite kugira ngo zikoreshwe ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma byose → imwe, ari yo nyungu ya kazinoimibareInyungu ya kazinoIgice cya buri tega kazino igumana ku mpuzandengo: 2,70% muri roulette y'i Burayi.Soma byose → mu miterere yayo y'ibanze. Guhindura: odds zo gutsindwa = (1 − p)/p; amahirwe = 1/(odds + 1).
Formula
Ibibazo
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0,073%.
36/37 = 97,3%. Zeru ni ibisigaye.
Yose uko ari 37 ni 1/37. Cumi na karindwi ni wo mubare utegwaho kenshi kurusha iyindi, kandi ibyo ni ukuri ku bantu.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Utega ku mutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose →, izunguruka ku rindi. Ni ayahe mahirwe y'uko intsinzi yawe ya gatanu iza neza ku izunguruka rya munani? Naho ay'uko ugira intsinzi eshanu mu mazunguruka umunani ya mbere?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo 12,9%, hafi 1 muri 8, ku ntsinzi ya gatanu ku izunguruka rya munani. 33,4% ku ntsinzi eshanu kugeza icyo gihe.
Intsinzi ya gatanu ku izunguruka rya munani bivuze ibintu bibiri: izunguruka rya munani riratsinda, kandi amazunguruka arindwi ya mbere arimo neza intsinzi enye n'ibihombo bitatu, mu buryo ubwo ari bwo bwose. Hari uburyo 35 bwo gushyira intsinzi enye mu mazunguruka arindwi.
Bityo amahirwe ni 35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0,02725 × 0,1354 = 12,9%.
Ku ntsinzi eshanu kugeza ku izunguruka rya munani, ongeraho igice nk'icyo ku ntsinzi ya gatanu ku mazunguruka ya gatanu, gatandatu n'irindwi: 2,7% + 7,0% + 10,8% + 12,9% = 33,4%. Abahanga mu ibarurishamibare babyita ikwirakwira rya negative binomial: umubare w'ibigeragezo umubare runaka w'intsinzi usaba. Taylor (2021) akora ikibazo kimwe ku ruziga rw'Abanyamerika, 12,2%.
Akanya k'urwenya
Bara utuzu. Gabanya na 37. Kuba ku ruhererekane. Birarangiye.
Inkomoko
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.