Imibare · Igitekerezo cy'ingenzi · iminota 7

Agaciro Gateganyijwe muri Roulette

Agaciro gateganyijwe muri roulette ni igisubizo cy'impuzandengo cy'itega iyo washobora kurisubiramo iteka. Muri roulette y'i Burayi kangana kuri buri tega risanzwe: utakaza 1/37 ya buri tega, ku mpuzandengo, kuri buri zunguruka.

Mu magambo yoroshye

Tekereza utega itega rimwe rya $10 ku mutuku inshuro miliyoni. Amazunguruka amwe atsinda $10, andi agatakaza $10. Teranya buri gisubizo maze ugabanye na miliyoni: ubona hafi −$0,27. Uwo mubare ni agaciro gateganyijwe k'itega rya roulette. Si ibiba ku izunguruka rimwe; ni impuzandengo y'igihe kirekire kuri buri zunguruka.

Igisubizo kigufiEV = amahirwe yo gutsinda × amafaranga atsindiwe − amahirwe yo gutsindwa × amafaranga atakajwe. Kuri buri tega risanzwe rya roulette ibyo bingana na −2,70% y'itega.

Formula ya EV y'itega rya roulette

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = imibare ifashwe · S = itega

Shyiramo itegeko ry'ubwishyu rya roulette, 36/n − 1, maze n ikavaho. Iyo ni inkuru yose y'inyungu ya kazino mu murongo umwe:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
= S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
= −S/37

Gerageza: mubazi y'agaciro gateganyijwe muri roulette

Hitamo umubare w'imibare itega rifata. Amahirwe n'ubwishyu birahinduka; agaciro gateganyijwe ntikahinduka.

umubare 1 ufashwe · ryishyura 35:1itega $10

gutsindwa 97,3%

p(intsinzi)1/37 = 2,70%

intsinzi yishyura+$350

igihombo gitwara−$10

EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0,0270·$350 − 0,9730·$10

agaciro gateganyijwe−$0,27 kuri buri zunguruka · −2,70%

Uko bigaragara uko igihe kigenda

Igisubizo cy'impuzandengo kuri buri zunguruka ku itega rya $10 ku mutuku, uko amazunguruka yiyongera. Mu ntangiriro amahirwe aganza; impuzandengo ituza yegera −$0,27 uko icyitegererezo kigenda kiba kinini. Uku ni ukwegerana mu gihe kirekire kazino yishingikirizaho.

Izunguruka ku rindi, impuzandengo igenda ibarwa ireka guhindagurika igatuza munsi gato ya zeru.

Imyumvire ikocamye isanzwe

“EV iri munsi ya zeru isobanura ko nzatsindwa muri buri mukino.”

Oya. Isobanura ko impuzandengo y'imikino myinshi ari igihombo. Imikino ku giti cyayo itandukana cyane, cyane cyane ku matega afite ihindagurika rinini nka straight up.

“Kazino ikenera igihe kirekire kugira ngo itsinde.”

Inyungu ya kazino ikora kuri buri zunguruka; icyo igihe kirekire gikora ni ugutuma igisubizo giteganywa. Mu mukino umwe, amahirwe ni yo mbaraga nini kurusha.

“Amatega amwe afite EV nziza kurusha andi.”

Si ko bimeze muri roulette y'i Burayi, uretse kimwe: hakoreshejwe la partage cyangwa en prison, amatega yishyura kimwe ku kindi agira kimwe cya kabiri cy'inyungu ya kazino isanzwe.

Akanya k'urwenya

$Si ibiba ku izunguruka rimwe. Ni impuzandengo ya yose.$

Si ibiba ku izunguruka rimwe. Ni impuzandengo ya yose.