Amazunguruka ya Roulette Yigenga
Buri zunguruka ritangirira ku busa.
Igisubizo cy'izunguruka rimwe nta ngaruka kigira ku rikurikira. Buri barura riri kuri uru rubuga rishingiye kuri iyo ngingo.
Icyo ukwigenga gusobanura
p(umutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose → ku izunguruka rya 2 | umutuku ku izunguruka rya 1) = p(umutuku) = 18/37. Gushingira ku mateka nta cyo bihindura. Imibare ishyushyeigihuhaUmubare ushyushyeUmubare wasohotse kenshi kurusha uko byari biteganyijwe vuba aha. Ku ruziga rutabogamye nta cyo uteganya.Soma byose →, imibare ikonjeigihuhaUmubare ukonjeUmubare umaze amazunguruka menshi utasohoka. Ku ruziga rutabogamye, nta makuru utanga ku mazunguruka azaza.Soma byose → n'amabara “ageze igihe” ni ugusobanura ibyahise, si uguhanura, kandi buri kimwe gishingiye ku kinyoma kivuga ko amazunguruka ya roulette atigenga. Mu buryo bw'imibare, amahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → y'uruhererekane urwo ari rwo rwose ni igikubo cy'amahirwe y'izunguruka rimwe rimwe, ari yo mpamvu yonyine itegeko ryo gukuba riri kuri paji y'amahirwe ryemewe.
Impamvu “amazunguruka ya roulette atigenga” ari ikinyoma mu bya fiziki
AgapiraibikoreshoAgapiraAgapira gato koherezwa mu nzira kerekeza mu cyerekezo kinyuranye n'icya rotor. Udupira tw'iki gihe dukozwe muri ivorine cyangwa Teflon, mm 18–21.Soma byose → koherezwa n'ukuboko ku muvuduko uhindagurika ku bice by'icumi bya metero ku isegonda; kazenguruka inzira ifite ubushyamirane buhinduka bitewe n'umukungugu n'ubuhehere; gakubita kimwe mu deflectoribikoreshoDeflectorKimwe mu bimenyetso by'icyuma biri kuri apron bitatanya agapira kagwa. Nanone: canoe, diamond, pin.Soma byose → umunani ku nguni igenwa n'ibyo byose; gasimbuka hejuru ya fretibikoreshoFretUrukuta rw'icyuma rutandukanya utuzu tubiri ku ruziga.Soma byose → zifite ingaruka ku gapira kagenda ku 1 m/s itunguranye mu buryo bwa tekiniki (chaotic). Nta kintu na kimwe cy'igisubizo cyabanje kigera muri izo mpinduka. RotoribikoreshoRotorIgice cy'uruziga kizenguruka gitwaye utuzu.Soma byose → ni ya yindi, ari ho honyine uguterwa n'ibyabanje kwakwihisha, kandi icyo ni ikibazo cy'ukubogama k'uruziga.
Ibikurikiraho
Buri buryo bwo gutega ni ikintu gishingiye ku bisubizo byahise. Niba ibisubizo byahise nta makuru bitwaye ku izunguruka rikurikira, nta kintu nk'icyo gishobora kunoza agaciro gateganyijweimibareAgaciro gateganyijweIgisubizo mpuzandengo kuri buri tega mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 y'itega kuri buri tega risanzwe ry'i Burayi.Soma byose → k'itega rikurikira. Iyi ni yo miterere y'imibare y'impaka zirwanya uburyo bwo gutega, kandi ni yo mpamvu amapaji y'ingamba ashobora kwandikwa mbere ku buryo butarahimbwa: igihamya ntigishingira ku itegeko.
Igihe kwaba kunaniranye
Ari uko gusa uruziga rubogamye mu buryo bufatika cyangwa uko kurupiye arekura agapira bishobora guteganywa. Izo ni ingingo za Laboratwari. Ndetse aho, uguterwa n'ibindi gushingira kuri fiziki, si ku bisubizo byabanje: akazuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → kabogamye gafite amahirwe menshi kuri buri zunguruka, si amahirwe menshi nyuma yo kumara igihe “gakonje”. Amakuru y'amazunguruka yabanje yaba ikimenyetso ku ruziga, kikaba ari ikindi kintu gitandukanye n'ishusho iri mu bisubizo.
Ukwigenga ni icyo bafata nk'ukuri
Gukuba amahirwe byemewe gusa iyo ibintu byigenga, kandi uruziga rwa roulette rubona uburenganzira bwo kubikora binyuze muri fiziki. Ahandi bigomba kugenzurwa. Mu 1999 Sally Clark, umunyamategeko w'Umwongereza, yahamijwe icyaha cyo kwica abahungu be babiri b'impinja. Umuganga w'abana yabwiye inteko y'abacamanza ko amahirwe y'impfu ebyiri z'impinja zitunguranye mu muryango nk'uwe yari 1 muri miliyoni 73, umubare yabonye akuba kabiri (squaring) 1 muri 8.543, amahirwe y'urupfu rumwe. Kuba kabiri gutyo bifata impfu zombi nk'amazunguruka abiri y'uruziga. Ariko abavandimwe basangiye uturemangingo n'urugo, bityo nyuma y'urupfu rumwe urwa kabiri rugira amahirwe menshi cyane kurusha urwa mbere. Royal Statistical Society yabivuze ku mugaragaro mu 2001, kandi igihano cya Clark cyakuweho mu bujurire bwa kabiri mu 2003, nyuma y'uko ibimenyetso by'ubuvuzi bitari byaratangajwe bigaragaye. Hunacek (2025) akoresha iyi nkuru kwigisha itegeko iyi paji ishingiyeho: kuba gusa ibyigenga.
Ukwigenga n'ameza ya RNG
Ameza ya porogaramu afata buri gisubizo muri porogaramu itanga imibare ku bw'amahirwe yemejwe, isuzumwa neza neza kuri iyi miterere: ukwigenga kw'ibisubizo bikurikiranye mu matombora miliyoni nyinshi. Uruziga rugenda kuri ecran ni umutako. Ameza ya RNG agaragaza uguterwa n'ibyabanje yatsindwa isuzuma ryo kwemezwa, iryo rikaba rikomeye kurusha iryo umukinnyi uwo ari we wese yakora.
Ibibazo
Si ku kazu. Wenda, afite ubuhanga buhoraho bukomeye, ku gice cy'uruzigauruzigaIgice cy'uruzigaUmuheto w'utuzu dukurikirana ku ruziga, bitandukanye n'itsinda ku mbonerahamwe y'amatega.Soma byose → kenshi kurusha amahirwe; reba imiterere y'ukuboko kwa kurupiye muri Laboratwari. Sitidiyo zihindura uburyo bwo kurekura agapira kugira ngo zibirinde.
Ku isesengura ry'ukubogama mu mazunguruka ibihumbi, mu ihame. Ku izunguruka rikurikira, oya.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Itega ritegwa mbere y'amazunguruka abiri ryishyura kimwe ku kindi iyo umubare wa kabiri uruta uwa mbere. Kunganya biratsindwa, kandi 0 ibarwa nk'umubare muto kurusha iyindi. Ritwara iki ku ruziga rw'i Burayi?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo 2,70% neza, kimwe n'umutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose →.
Amazunguruka yombi ntaterana, bityo umubare wa kabiri ufite amahirwe angana yo kuruta uwa mbere cyangwa kuba munsi yawo. Ikindi gishoboka gusa ni ukunganya, umubare umwe kabiri, ku mahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → ya 1/37.
Bityo itega ritsinda ku mahirwe ya (1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37, amahirwe y'umutuku neza, kandi ritwara 2,70% zimwe.
Iyo uba ushobora kuritega umaze kubona umubare wa mbere, ryaba impano: nyuma ya 0 ritsinda incuro 36 muri 37. Ni yo mpamvu itega nk'iri rigomba gufungwa mbere y'izunguruka rya mbere.
Akanya k'urwenya
Buri zunguruka ritangirira ku busa. Buri barura riri hano rishingiye kuri ibyo.
Inkomoko
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”