Igisobanuro cy'Ibarurishamibare
“Gifite igisobanuro” bivuga ko bidashoboka cyane ku ruziga rutabogamye, ntibivuga “nyakuri” kandi ntibivuga “bizana inyungu”.
p-value ya 0,05 bivuga ko uruziga rutabogamye rwatanga imiterere ibogamye bingana gutya rimwe mu nshuro makumyabiri. Niba urebye inziga makumyabiri, rumwe ruzatsinda isuzuma ku bw'impanuka.
p-value ni iki
Ni amahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → yo kubona itandukaniro rinini nibura nk'iryabonetse, iyo uruziga ruba rutabogamye. Ni ibivugwa ku makuru hashingiwe ku gitekerezo cyemejwe, si ibivugwa ku ruziga. p-valuelaboratwarip-valueAmahirwe yo kubona itandukaniro rinini nk'iryabonetse cyangwa ririruta, iyo uruziga ruba rutabogamye.Soma byose → ya 0,03 ivuga iti: uruziga rutabogamye rukora ibi 3% by'igihe. Ntivuga iti: hari amahirwe 97% ko uruziga rubogamye. Ibivugwa bya kabiri byasaba kumenya mbere uko inziga zibogamyelaboratwariUruziga rubogamyeUruziga rufite inenge z'umubiri zituma utuzu tumwe tugira amahirwe arenze 1/37. Ni gake, kandi rutahurwa gusa n'amazunguruka ibihumbi byanditswe.Soma byose → ziboneka kenshi, kandi muri kazino za none ni gake cyane, ibyo bigatuma igisubizo kimwe gifite igisobanuro gishoboka cyane kuba impanuka kurusha kuba ikintu wavumbuye.
Kugereranya kwinshi
Buri suzuma ukoze ku ruziga rutabogamye rifite amahirwe 5% yo gutsinda ku rugero rwa 5%. Suzuma inziga makumyabiri, rumwe rutsinde. Suzuma uruziga rumwe mu bihe makumyabiri bitandukanye, kimwe gitsinde. Suzuma icyitegererezo kimwe ukoresheje amatsinda 37 y'utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose →, amatsinda atandatu y'ibice by'uruzigauruzigaIgice cy'uruzigaUmuheto w'utuzu dukurikirana ku ruziga, bitandukanye n'itsinda ku mbonerahamwe y'amatega.Soma byose → n'amatsinda atatu y'amabara, kandi hari ikizatsinda. Umuti ni uguhitamo isuzuma mbere yo kureba amakuru, ukarikora rimwe, kandi ukemeza ku makuru mashya. Kugenzura kwinshi kubona uruziga “rubogamye” akenshi ni ko kwabyaye icyo gisubizo.
Igisobanuro n'ingano
Icyitegererezo kinini cyane gishobora gutuma ukubogama gutoya cyane kugira igisobanuro. Akazu kagwamo ku rugero rwa 1/36,5 aho kuba 1/37 ni inenge nyayo yagira igisobanuro mu mazunguruka miliyoni nke, nyamara igakomeza guhombya amafaranga ku bwishyuamafarangaUbwishyuIbyo itega ryatsinze rigarura, bivugwa nka “X kuri 1” hiyongereyeho itega rigarurwa.Soma byose → bwa 35 kuri 1. Icy'ingenzi ku mukinnyi ni ingano y'ingaruka: ese hari akazu kagwamo ku rugero rwa 1/36 cyangwa kurenza, kandi ku rugero rungana iki? Chi-square ikubwira ibyerekeye uruziga; urugero akazu kagwamo ni rwo rwonyine rukubwira ibyerekeye itega.
Imbaraga z'isuzuma
Irindi kosa ni ukubura ukubogama guhari. Mu mazunguruka 1.000, akazu ka 1/30 (ukubogama kunini cyane) gatahurwa hafi kimwe cya kabiri cy'igihe gusa ku rugero rwa 5%. Ingano y'icyitegererezo, si ubuhanga, ni yo ikemura ibi. Ipaji ya Ingano y'Icyitegererezo itanga imibare.
Igipimo gikoreshwa mu bikorwa
Kugira ngo ibivugwa ku kubogama bibe bishishikaje: isuzuma ryahiswemo mbere, p < 0,01 aho kuba 0,05, gusubiramo ku cyitegererezo cyigenga cy'ingano isa, n'urugero rugereranyijwe utuzu dutoneshwa tugwamo rwa 1/34 cyangwa kurenza nyuma yo gusubiramo. Icyo gipimo cyagezweho inshuro nke cyane mu mateka y'umukino kandi, nk'uko inyandiko zitangazwa zibigaragaza, nta na rimwe ku ruziga rwa none rwitaweho.
Ibibazo
Ni akamenyero kuva mu myaka ya 1920. Nta kidasanzwe kiyirimo; 0,01 ni urugero rwumvikana kurushaho iyo ugenzura inziga nyinshi.
Wenda ntirutanga ibisubizo bingana. Bishobora kuba ingaruka ya kurupiye, ikosa ryo kwandika cyangwa ikibazo cyo kwinjiza amakuru. Subiramo.
Oya. Kikubwira ko ikwirakwizwa ritameze neza. Isesengura ry'Ibice by'Uruziga n'ingano y'ingaruka ni byo bikubwira aho.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Ku ruziga rwa zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icyatsi katafatwa n'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi, irya dazeni cyangwa iry'inkingi; ni ho inyungu ya kazino ikomoka. Nanone: zeru imwe, 0.Soma byose → ebyiri rwavuzwe, dazeniitegaDazeni1–12, 13–24 cyangwa 25–36, yishyura 2:1.Soma byose → ya mbere yasohotse incuro 742 mu mazunguruka 3.000. Ibyo biri ibinyuranyo bisanzweimibareIkinyuranyo gisanzweUmuzi wa kare w'ihindagurika; intera isanzwe y'igisubizo uvuye ku gaciro gateganyijwe.Soma byose → bingahe munsi y'impuzandengo, kandi uruziga ruboneye rwabikora kangahe?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Hafi ibinyuranyo bisanzwe 8,1 munsi. Uruziga ruboneye rwabikora hafi rimwe mu bigeragezo 3 × 10¹⁵, ni ukuvuga ntibibaho. Igisubizo cyacapwe hamwe n'ikibazo kivuga 11,75; twe tubona 8,07.
Dazeni ya mbere irimo utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → 12 muri 38. Mu mazunguruka 3.000 igira impuzandengo ya 3.000 × 12/38 = 947,4 yo gufata, n'ikwirakwira rya √(3.000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25,5.
742 iri 205,4 munsi y'impuzandengo: 205,4/25,5 = ikwirakwira 8,07.
Uruziga ruboneye rubura ikwirakwira gatatu hafi rimwe mu bigeragezo 740; ikwirakwira umunani, hafi rimwe mu 3 × 10¹⁵ (umurongo w'inzogera, uruhande rumwe). Kuzirikana ko usoma yabonye ibibi kurusha muri dazeni eshatu nta cyo bihindura gifite akamaro. Igisubizo nk'iki kivuga ko uruziga, cyangwa ibarura, bifite ikosa. Ku ruziga rwa zeru imwe ibarura rimwe ryaba ikwirakwira 9,0 munsi (impuzandengo 973,0, ikwirakwira 25,6).
Akanya k'urwenya
Uruziga rumwe muri makumyabiri rutabogamye “rufite igisobanuro”. Ibyo ni byo uwo mubare usobanura.
Inkomoko
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, ibibazo bya roulette.