The Eudaemons
Abanyeshuri biga ubugenge, uruziga rwa kazino rwaguzwe amafaranga mu ntoki, na mudasobwa ntoya ku buryo yambarwa ku meza.
Kuva mu 1976 kugeza mu 1981, itsinda ry'abanyeshuri biga ubugenge i Santa Cruz ryubatse mudasobwa zipima igihe cy'agapira n'icya rotor maze zikavuga igice cy'uruziga amatega agifunguye. Igerageza ryabo ryasezeranyaga inyungu ya 44% kandi umukino wa mbere muremure watanze hafi 25%. Ibikoresho byahoraga binanirwa, verisiyo yubatswe mu nkweto yatsinzwe n'urusaku rw'amashanyarazi mu 1981, kandi batsinze amadolari ibihumbi bike.
Igitekerezo mu kabari k'i Las Vegas, 1975
Mu mpeshyi ya 1975, Norman Packard, umunyeshuri wiga ubugenge, yamaze amezi abiri abara amakarita muri blackjack i Las Vegas ari kumwe n'inshuti ye Jack Biles, maze ntiyunguka ntiyanahomba. Basangira icyo kunywa cya nyuma, Biles yavuze ko yatega ko roulette ishobora gutsindwa hakoreshejwe ubugenge, maze Packard yibuka umurongo utumvikana neza mu gitabo Beat the Dealer cya Edward Thorp ku buryo bwo gukina roulette. Bombi batiye icyuma gifata amajwi, bahagarara iruhande rw'inziga muri kazino nyinshi bakomanga kuri mikoro buri gihe agapiraibikoreshoAgapiraAgapira gato koherezwa mu nzira kerekeza mu cyerekezo kinyuranye n'icya rotor. Udupira tw'iki gihe dukozwe muri ivorine cyangwa Teflon, mm 18–21.Soma byose → kanyuze ahantu hadahinduka. Bishushanyijwe ku mpapuro z'imirongo, ukwo gukomanga kwerekanye agapira gatinda kakagwa mu buryo buhoraho. Inshuti ya Packard bigananye Doyne Farmer, umunyeshuri w'icyiciro cya gatatu muri University of California, Santa Cruz, yabanje kubyita guta igihe kugeza abaze imibare ubwe: umuntu ushobora gupima igihe cy'agapira ku kimwe cya cumi cy'isegonda yagombye, ku mpapuro, gushobora kuvuga aho kazagwa hagati y'imibare mike.
Uruziga muri laboratwari y'ubugenge
Mu itumba rya 1976, Farmer na Dan Browne bishyuye $1.500 mu ntoki uruziga rwa kazino rwasanwe mu iduka ry'i Reno, bavuga ko ari urw'ibirori by'ishyirahamwe ry'abanyeshuri. Mu mezi menshi barujyanaga nijoro muri laboratwari yigishirizwamo muri kaminuza bakarupima bakoresheje sensor za infrarouge, isaha ya elegitoroniki bikoreye na kamera itangizwa n'ijwi ry'agapira gakubita icyuma. Ibyo babonye biracyari urutonde rwiza rugufi rw'ibifite akamaro mu izunguruka. Umwuka ni wo utinza agapira kurusha ibindi, kurusha inzira yako. Uruziga rutaringaniye n'iyo ari ku kimwe cya cumi cya inch gusa ruhindura aho agapira kava mu nzira yako, kandi ku ruziga ruberamye agapira gakunda kuvamo ku ruhande ruri hejuru, bigatuma guteganya byoroha. Udupira turatandukanye: agapira ka Teflon katindaga vuba inshuro ebyiri kurusha ak'ibikoresho by'udupira twa billard. Kandi iyo agapira kamaze kuva mu nzira yako karacyasimbuka, ku mpuzandengo bitarenze kimwe cya kane kugeza kuri kimwe cya gatatu cy'uruziga. Uko gusimbuka ni cyo kibazo gahunda yose yari ishingiyeho, kandi ntikwari kunini bihagije ngo gusibanganye iteganya. Mu mpera z'impeshyi bavuze ko inyungu ishoboka ari 44%, umubare Thorp yari yatanze ku gikoresho cye.
Sosiyete n'umugati
Icyo gikorwa bacyise Eudaemonic Enterprises, bivuye ku ijambo ry'Ikigereki risobanura ibyishimo by'ubuzima buyobowe n'ubwenge. Buri wese wagikozeho yagombaga kwishyurwa intsinzi zizaza hakurikijwe amasaha yakoze: igice cy'icyo bise Eudaemonic Pie. Intsinzi zari zigamije kwishyura umuryango w'inshuti zikora ubushakashatsi mu buryo bwazo.
Mudasobwa munsi y'ukuboko, 1976–1978
Imashini ya mbere yakomotse kuri mudasobwa yo guteranya yaje mu iposita muri Nzeri 1976 ku $250, yubatswe kuri processor ya 6502 mudasobwa za Apple na zo zakoreshaga. Farmer, utari warigeze akora porogaramu, yayishyizemo ingereranyo z'agapira na rotoribikoreshoRotorIgice cy'uruziga kizenguruka gitwaye utuzu.Soma byose →. Verisiyo ya kazino yambarwaga iziritse ku mubiri, munsi y'ukuboko cyangwa, ku bagore, mu isutiye. Umukinnyi wari ku ruziga yakandaga utwuma akoresheje amano manini: ino rimwe ryerekanaga zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icyatsi katafatwa n'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi, irya dazeni cyangwa iry'inkingi; ni ho inyungu ya kazino ikomoka. Nanone: zeru imwe, 0.Soma byose → hanyuma agapira buri gihe binyuze ahantu hadahinduka, irindi rigahindura porogaramu hagati y'imiterere yayo. Guhuza porogaramu n'uruziga runaka byatwaraga hafi iminota makumyabiri yo gukanda bucece. Hanyuma, amasegonda make muri buri zunguruka, mudasobwa yavugaga kimwe mu bice umunani by'uruzigauruzigaIgice cy'uruzigaUmuheto w'utuzu dukurikirana ku ruziga, bitandukanye n'itsinda ku mbonerahamwe y'amatega.Soma byose →, cyangwa ikerekana “nta tega”, ikoresheje utwuma duto tunyeganyega ku ruhu. Umukinnyi wa kabiri wari kure ku meza, uhujwe n'ikimenyetso cya radiyo gifite imbaraga nke, yumvaga uko kunyeganyega kumwe maze agatega imibare itatu cyangwa ine y'icyo gice, rimwe na rimwe agasimbuza umubare uri iruhande rwawo ku ruziga kugira ngo uburyo bugorane gusomwa.
Urugendo rwa mbere, i Lake Tahoe n'i Reno mu Ukuboza 1977, rwabaye ukunanirwa k'ibikoresho kumwe kurekure. Ibyumweru bike nyuma, muri Golden Gate mu mujyi rwagati wa Las Vegas, Farmer yakinnye wenyine amasaha ane n'igice kuri senti icumi kuri buri jetoamafarangaJeto (chip)Jeto ihagarariye amafaranga angana atahinduka, ishyirwa ku mbonerahamwe y'amatega kugira ngo utege. Nanone: check.Soma byose →. Inyungu yari nto, ariko mu mazunguruka amagana menshi we na Browne bavuze, bitonze, ko inyungu yari 25%.
Impeshyi ya 1978
Iyo mpeshyi, itsinda ryakinnye mu byiciro mu byumweru byinshi, mu mujyi rwagati no ku Strip, imikino ibiri ku munsi kandi ntibakinire muri kazino imwe amajoro abiri akurikiranye. Babikaga ikaye kuri buri kazino: inziga zayo n'uko zitaringaniye, abakozi bayo, ihererekanya ry'abakozi. Inziga z'i Las Vegas zasanzwe ziberamye mu buryo bubafasha kandi imikino yo mu gicuku itinda, ari byo mudasobwa yakeneraga, kuko rotor itinda n'agapira kihuta bisiga igihe kinini cyo gupima no gutega. Habayeho amajoro meza. Muri Circus Circus, guhindura kurupiyeabantuKurupiye (croupier)Kurupiye uyobora ameza ya roulette.Soma byose → saa munani z'ijoro byahinduye umukino w'igihombo amadolari amagana menshi kuri senti 25 kuri buri jeto. Kandi habayeho uruhererekane rudahagarara rw'ukunanirwa: insinga zirekuye, imiyoboro ya radiyo yahindukaga bitewe n'ubushyuhe, gukubitwa n'amashanyarazi n'insinga za antenne zadodwe mu mashati yabo. Ijoro rimwe utwuma twananiwe kugenda, insinga zirashyuha cyane, maze Ingrid Hoermann akomeza gukina afite ubushye aho kuva ku meza yatsindagaho. Abakozi ba kazino babonaga intsinzi ariko ntibigeze babona uburyo; rimwe kurupiye, ababajwe n'ikirundo cy'amajeto cyakomezaga kwiyongera, yafashe uruziga ruzunguruka arukaraga.
Mu mezi cumi n'atatu bakoze ingendo umunani muri Nevada kandi, bategaga ahanini senti icumi n'iza makumyabiri n'eshanu, batsinda amadolari ibihumbi bike. Umukino muri California Club mu Ukuboza 1978 wazanye ibirenga $1.000 mu masaha atatu kandi ubemeza ko uburyo bukwiye ibikoresho byiza kurushaho.
Packard na Biles bapima igihe cy'udupira twa roulette bakoresheje icyuma gifata amajwi i Las Vegas.
Uruziga rwa kazino rwaguzwe i Reno; impeshyi y'ibipimo; mudasobwa ya mbere yo guteranya.
Urugendo rwa mbere muri kazino, Lake Tahoe na Reno. Ibikoresho biranananirwa.
Golden Gate, Las Vegas: amasaha ane n'igice ku matega ya senti icumi, inyungu ivugwa ko ari 25%.
Ibyumweru byo gukina i Las Vegas mudasobwa yambawe ku mubiri.
California Club: ibirenga $1.000 mu masaha atatu.
Mudasobwa yongera kubakwa ngo ikwire mu nkweto.
Las Vegas: urusaku rw'amashanyarazi rurenga umuyoboro wa radiyo. Igikorwa kirahagarara.
Nevada ibuza ibikoresho byo guteganya. The Eudaemonic Pie irasohoka.
Mudasobwa mu nkweto, 1980–1981
Kugira ngo bakure insinga ku mibiri yabo, bafashe icyemezo cyo gushyira byose mu nkweto. Mark Truitt, warangije amasomo y'ubugenge vuba wari wavuye mu kiganiro cy'akazi ku byuma bya radar bya gisirikare, yabimazeho umwaka n'igice. Igitekerezo cyatumye bikwira cyaturutse ku mutekinisiye wa kaminuza: kuzimya mudasobwa hagati y'iteganya, maze ikenera batiri nke cyane. Truitt yashyize chips ku makarita abiri y'amashanyarazi yicapiye ubwe, ashyira imwe hejuru y'indi ayicuritse maze yuzuza icyuho ibishashara bikomeye, bikora igice kingana na inch ebyiri kuri enye n'ubugari bwa kimwe cya kabiri cya inch cyashoboraga kugenderwaho. Batiri, antenne n'utwuma tubiri muri dutatu tunyeganyega byagiye mu gatsinsino. Utwuma dutatu tunyeganyega ku muvuduko utatu twatangaga ibimenyetso icyenda: ibice umunani na “nta tega”. Umudozi w'inkweto yacukuye inkweto zisanzwe z'uruhu kandi nta kibazo yabajije.
Mu Ugushyingo 1981, Farmer n'umwanditsi Thomas Bass bajyanye inkweto na $2.500 i Las Vegas. Ku meza ya mbere, iteganya rya mbere ryarahuye, hanyuma utwuma tunyeganyega dutangira kunyeganyega uko twiboneye. Kazino zuzuyemo urusaku rw'amashanyarazi, ruturuka kuri kamera z'umutekano, ibyapa bya néon n'imashini z'urusimbi, kandi rwarengaga umuyoboro wa radiyo ufite imbaraga nke hagati y'inkweto; televiziyo yo mu cyumba cya hoteli yakoraga kimwe. Iminsi yo gusana y'abantu bane ntiyabikemuye, kandi igikorwa cyahagaze aho. Ibikoresho byagiye mu isanduku mu nzu yo munsi y'ubutaka i Santa Cruz.
Icyo 44% bisobanura
Ku ruziga rw'Abanyamerika, straight upitegaStraight upUmubare umwe, yishyura 35:1.Soma byose → itsinda rimwe mu mazunguruka 38 ku mpuzandengo kandi yishyura 35 kuri 1, bitwara umukinnyi 5,26%. Inyungu ya 44% ni agaciro k'iryo tega rimwe iyo ritsinda rimwe mu mazunguruka 25: amajeto 36 agaruka kuri buri 25 zategewe. Bityo mudasobwa ntiyari ikeneye kumenya umubare. Yagombaga gutuma imibare yahisemo iza hafi inshuro imwe n'igice kurusha uko amahirwe abyemera.
Impamvu inyungu nini yakomezaga kumera nk'urusimbi
Inyungu kuri 35 kuri 1 yishyura buhoro kandi bidahoraho. Umwe mu bajyanama b'itsinda yaburiye ko umukinnyi utega $100 ku mubare ashobora kuba ari munsi $10.000 cyangwa $20.000 mbere y'uko inyungu igaragara, kandi imibare irabyemeza: n'inyungu ya 44% ku mibare imwe imwe, umukinnyi aracyari inyuma nyuma y'amazunguruka 100 hafi rimwe muri kane. Ni yo mpamvu Eudaemons batangiriye kuri senti icumi bakubaka igishoro cyabo cyo gukinaamafarangaIgishoro cyo gukinaAmafaranga yose yashyizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga igishoro ni ukwemeza ingano yacyo uzashyira mu kaga kuri buri tega no kuri buri mukino.Soma byose → bakoresheje intsinzi, kandi ni yo mpamvu Alan Lewis, wabinjiyemo mu 1978, yamaraga igihe cye ku ngano y'amatega. Farmer nyuma yatekereje ko bari baritonze cyane. Amatega mato yabarindaga, kandi yanasobanuraga ko imyaka y'akazi yinjije bike cyane.
Icyo byatwaye n'icyo byishyuye
Hafi $15.000 zagiye mu bice by'ibikoresho, ibikoresho by'akazi n'umushahara wa Truitt, inyinshi zivuye kuri Farmer na Letty Belin, umunyamategeko waje gushyingiranwa na we. Farmer yabariwe amasaha 3.500 y'akazi, Truitt 3.000 naho Packard 2.000. Ibyo bigereranywa n'amadolari ibihumbi bike yatsindiwe ku matega mato. Mu 1983, Farmer yamamaje mu kinyamakuru cy'urusimbi ashaka abashoramari, asobanura igikoresho cy'icyitegererezo gifite inyungu yagaragajwe muri kazino ya 20 kugeza kuri 40%. Igihe Eudaemons bakinaga, ubushakashatsi Belin yakoze mu mategeko ya Nevada nta cyo bwabonye kibuza guteganya umukino; muri Gicurasi 1985, leta yagize icyaha gukoresha igikoresho kubera ibyo. Icyagumyeho ni ubumenyi. Kubaka izo mudasobwa byatoje Farmer, Packard n'inshuti zabo kwiga chaos, ari ho bamenyekaniye.
Gusoma igitabo uyu munsi
Thomas Bass, wategaga mu rugendo rwa nyuma, yavuze iyo nkuru muri The Eudaemonic Pie (1985), yubakiye ku biganiro birebire n'itsinda, kandi ni yo nkomoko y'iyi paji. Amateka magufi ya roulette arimo ntiyizewe nk'uko inkuru y'igikorwa yizewe. Asubiramo inkuru y'abakarani batandatu Jagger yahaye akazi, ikomoka ku gitabo cyo mu 1901 kandi ntirenge aho (reba Joseph Jagger: Ingamba za Roulette i Monte Carlo), kandi ashyira igerageza rya Thorp na Shannon muri kazino mu 1962, aho inkuru za Thorp ubwe zivuga impeshyi ya 1961.
Ibibazo
Oya. Batsinze amadolari ibihumbi bike ku matega ya senti icumi n'iza makumyabiri n'eshanu, kandi bakoresha hafi $15.000 n'ibihumbi byinshi by'amasaha.
Igihe bakinaga, Nevada nta tegeko yari ifite ribuza guteganya umukino hakoreshejwe igikoresho. Yaribonye kuva mu 1985, kandi ahantu henshi hari kazino ubu harafite.
Ntibyakora aho gutega bifungwa igihe agapira karekurwa, nk'uko bigenda muri sitidiyo z'imbonankubone, kandi kwinjiza igikoresho nk'icyo muri kazino ni icyaha mu turere twinshi tw'amategeko.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Abitwa Eudaemons babaraga ko mudasobwa yabo yari ifite agaciro ka 44% kuri straight upitegaStraight upUmubare umwe, yishyura 35:1.Soma byose → ku ruziga rw'Abanyamerika, aho itega ryishyura 35 kuri 1. Umubare wahiswemo ugomba gutsinda kangahe ngo ibyo bibe ukuri? Kandi ihanura ryagombye kuvanaho utuzuibikoreshoAkazuKamwe mu tuzu 37 twanditseho imibare turi kuri rotor. Nanone: slot, cup.Soma byose → tungahe muri 38, iyo agapiraibikoreshoAgapiraAgapira gato koherezwa mu nzira kerekeza mu cyerekezo kinyuranye n'icya rotor. Udupira tw'iki gihe dukozwe muri ivorine cyangwa Teflon, mm 18–21.Soma byose → kagira amahirwe angana yo kugwa mu kazu ako ari ko kose mu dusigaye?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Rimwe mu mazunguruka 25. Ibyo bingana no kuvanaho utuzu 13 hagasigara 25.
JetoamafarangaJeto (chip)Jeto ihagarariye amafaranga angana atahinduka, ishyirwa ku mbonerahamwe y'amatega kugira ngo utege. Nanone: check.Soma byose → yatsinze igaruka n'izindi 35: jeto 36. Niba umubare utsinda rimwe mu mazunguruka n, jeto n zategewe zigarura 36, bityo itega rifite agaciro ka 36/n − 1.
Shyira ibyo kuri 0,44: 36/n = 1,44, bityo n = 25. Nta ihanura n ni 38 kandi itega rifite agaciro ka 36/38 − 1 = −5,26%.
Noneho tekereza ko ihanura rivanaho utuzu k kandi agapira kagira amahirwe angana yo kugwa muri buri kamwe mu tundi 38 − k. Jeto kuri kamwe muri two itsinda rimwe mu mazunguruka 38 − k. Kuri 44% dukeneye 38 − k = 25, bityo k = 13: birenga gato kimwe cya gatatu cy'uruziga.
Mu gitabo Farmer avugwa avuga ko 40% iva ku kuvanaho utuzu umunani. Kuri ubu buryo bworoshye umunani utanga 36/30 − 1 = 20%, bityo ishusho nyayo yagombye kuba itaringaniye: tumwe mu tuzu dusigaye dufite amahirwe menshi cyane kurusha utundi.
utuzu twavanywehoutuzu dusigayestraight up ifite agaciro ka038−5,26%2360%830+20%1325+44%1919+89%Tekereza ko umubare wawe utsinda koko rimwe mu mazunguruka 25 kuri 35 kuri 1, inyungu ya 44%. Utega jeto imwe kuri buri zunguruka. Ni ayahe mahirwe y'uko uba uri inyuma nyuma y'amazunguruka 100? Nyuma ya 500?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Hafi 23% nyuma y'amazunguruka 100 kandi hafi 6% nyuma ya 500.
Nyuma y'amazunguruka 100 uba warateze jeto 100, kandi buri ntsinzi igarura 36. Intsinzi ebyiri zigarura 72, igihombo cya 28; eshatu zigarura 108, inyungu ya 8. Bityo uba uri inyuma iyo utsinze kabiri cyangwa munsi yaho.
Amahirwe yo kudatsinda na rimwe mu mazunguruka 100 ni (24/25)¹⁰⁰ = 1,7%. Intsinzi imwe neza: 100 × (1/25) × (24/25)⁹⁹ = 7,0%. Ebyiri neza: 4.950 × (1/25)² × (24/25)⁹⁸ = 14,5%. Hamwe 23,2%.
Nyuma y'amazunguruka 500 ukenera intsinzi 14 ngo ube imbere (14 × 36 = 504), kandi impuzandengo ni 20. Amahirwe ya 13 cyangwa munsi ni hafi 6,2%.
Iki ni uruhande rundi rw'itega rifite amahirwe make. Inyungu ni nini, kandi hafi mu ruhererekane rumwe rw'amazunguruka 100 muri enye ntigaragara. Umukinnyi utazi neza ko inyungu ihari ntashobora gutandukanya uruhererekane rubi na mudasobwa yapfuye, ari na ho Eudaemons bakunze kwisanga.
amazungurukaintsinzi zikenewe ngo ube imbereamahirwe yo kuba inyuma50240,1%100323,2%200618,6%500146,2%Igitabo kivuga ko ku nyungu ya 44%, $100 itegwa incuro 50 ku isaha yagombye kwinjiza $2.200 ku isaha. Bigenzure. Hanyuma ubare icyo iyo nyungu imwe yinjije ku matega itsinda ryakinnye koko: senti icumi kuri buri zunguruka.
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo $2.200 ni ukuri kuri $100 kuri buri zunguruka. Kuri senti icumi kuri buri zunguruka ni $2,20 ku isaha.
Inyungu ni umugabane w'ibyategewe byose. Kuri $100 kuri buri zunguruka n'amazunguruka 50 ku isaha, hategwa $5.000, kandi 44% byayo ni $2.200.
Kuri senti 10 kuri buri zunguruka, hategwa $5 mu isaha, kandi 44% bya $5 ni $2,20. Ndetse utwikiriye imibare ine kuri senti icumi buri umwe, ni $8,80 ku isaha ku bantu babiri.
Itsinda ryakinaga make kuko ryubakaga igishoro cyo gukinaamafarangaIgishoro cyo gukinaAmafaranga yose yashyizwe ku ruhande yo gukina. Gucunga igishoro ni ukwemeza ingano yacyo uzashyira mu kaga kuri buri tega no kuri buri mukino.Soma byose → rivuye ku busa kandi kuko, nk'uko ikibazo kiri hejuru kibyerekana, inyungu ya 44% kuri 35 kuri 1 ishobora gutsindwa amasaha menshi. Igiciro cy'ubwo bwitonzi cyari uko uburyo bwashoboraga gukora neza rwose ariko bukishyura munsi y'akazi.
Akanya k'urwenya
Ubugenge bwarakoze. Néon yatsinze.
Inkomoko
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. “The invention of the first wearable computer.”
- Nevada Revised Statutes, chapter 465.