Ihindagurika
Impamvu straight up n'itega ku mutuku bifite igihombo giteganyijweimibareIgihombo giteganyijweAgaciro gateganyijwe gakubye amafaranga yose yategewe; igihombo mpuzandengo mu mukino umwe cyangwa mu gihe runaka.Soma byose → kimwe byumvikana nk'imikino itandukanye.

Ihindagurika ripima uko ibisubizo bikwirakwira kure y'agaciro gateganyijwe. Kuri buri nite itegewe ni hafi 34 kuri straight up na hafi 1 ku mutuku.
Formula y'itega rimwe
Ku itega ryishyura W kuri 1 rifite amahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → p, igisubizo kuri buri niteamafarangaIniteItega ry'ibanze uburyo cyangwa umukinnyi akoresha. Impererekane z'amatega zisobanurwa mu nite kugira ngo zikoreshwe ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma byose → ni +W ku mahirwe p na −1 ku mahirwe 1 − p. Agaciro gateganyijweimibareAgaciro gateganyijweIgisubizo mpuzandengo kuri buri tega mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 y'itega kuri buri tega risanzwe ry'i Burayi.Soma byose → ni pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. IhindagurikaimibareIhindagurikaIgipimo cy'uko ibisubizo bikwirakwira kure y'agaciro gateganyijwe. Riri hejuru kuri straight up, hasi ku matega yishyura kimwe ku kindi.Soma byose → ni E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². Kuri straight upitegaStraight upUmubare umwe, yishyura 35:1.Soma byose →: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0,0007 ≈ 34,08. Ku mutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose →: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0,0007 ≈ 0,999.
Icyo bisobanura ku mukino
Amahindagurika arateranywa ku mazunguruka yigengaimibareAmazunguruka yigengaBuri zunguruka rifite amahirwe amwe uko amateka yaba ari kose. Ni ryo shingiro rya buri mubare ubarwa kuri uru rubuga.Soma byose →, bityo mu mazunguruka N ku itega ridahinduka ihindagurika ry'igiteranyo ni N × itega² × σ², naho ikinyuranyo gisanzweimibareIkinyuranyo gisanzweUmuzi wa kare w'ihindagurika; intera isanzwe y'igisubizo uvuye ku gaciro gateganyijwe.Soma byose → ni σ × itega × √N. Amazunguruka 100 ya $10: ikinyuranyo gisanzwe ni hafi $584 kuri straight up na $100 ku mutuku, bizengurutse −$27 imwe iteganyijwe. Umukinnyi umwe abona ibisubizo bihindagurika ku magana; undi akabona kugenda gahoro. Bombi bishyura igiciro kimwe.
Ihindagurika n'uburyo bwo gutega
Uruhererekane rw'amategaingambaUruhererekane rw'amategaItegeko iryo ari ryo ryose rihindura itega hashingiwe ku bisubizo byabanje. Impererekane mbi ziryongera nyuma yo gutsindwa, inziza nyuma yo gutsinda.Soma byose → ntiruhindura EV kuri buri nite itegewe ariko ruhindura amafaranga ategwa n'ishusho y'ikwirakwira. MartingaleingambaMartingaleUruhererekane rw'amatega rukuba itega kabiri nyuma ya buri gutsindwa. Reba igice cy'Ingamba umenye icyo rukora n'icyo rudakora.Soma byose → igabanya ihindagurika ry'imikino myinshi (intsinzi nto nyinshi) kandi ikongeraho umurizo munini (igihombo kinini kidakunze kubaho); ihindagurika ryose mu mikino yose riruta iry'itega rihorahoingambaGutega itega rihorahoGutega amafaranga angana kuri buri zunguruka. Ni yo ngero buri ruhererekane rw'amatega rugereranywa na yo.Soma byose → kubera uwo murizo. ParoliingambaParoliUruhererekane rw'amatega rwiza: kuba kabiri nyuma yo gutsinda, gusubira ku ntangiriro nyuma yo gutsindwa cyangwa nyuma yo gutsinda gatatu gukurikiranya. Nanone: Martingale ihindukiye.Soma byose → ikora ibinyuranye. Guhitamo uburyo ni uguhitamo imiterere y'ihindagurika; impuzandengo ntiri mu byo uhitamo.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- mediane −$500
- p75 +$40
- p90 +$1.120
Ingamba za Roulette zo Gutega Itega RihorahoIngamba za Roulette za Paroli (Martingale Ihindukiye)
Impamvu bifite akamaro ku mukinnyi
Ihindagurika ni ryo rituma imikino migufi idateganyika kandi imikino miremire igateganyika. Hamwe na σ = $100 na EV = −$27 mu mazunguruka 100, inyungu ya kazino ni kimwe cya kane cy'urusaku kandi umukino urangira hari inyungu ni ibisanzwe. Mu mazunguruka 10.000, EV ni −$2.700 naho σ ni $1.000; inyungu ya kazino noneho iruta urusaku hafi inshuro eshatu kandi uruhererekane rw'inyungu ni ikintu cya sigma eshatu. Ihindagurika ni inshuti y'umukinnyi mu gihe gito, n'iya kazino mu gihe kirekire.
Ihindagurika ry'amatega avanze
Ku matega menshi ku izunguruka rimwe, ibisubizo bifitanye isano (gufata 17 ni no gufata umukaraitegaUmukaraItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umukara. Mu Gifaransa: noir.Soma byose → na dazeniitegaDazeni1–12, 13–24 cyangwa 25–36, yishyura 2:1.Soma byose → ya kabiri), bityo amahindagurika ntateranywa gusa. Igikoresho Umwubatsi w'Amatega kibara ikwirakwira nyaryo ku itsinda iryo ari ryo ryose ry'amajetoamafarangaJeto (chip)Jeto ihagarariye amafaranga angana atahinduka, ishyirwa ku mbonerahamwe y'amatega kugira ngo utege. Nanone: check.Soma byose → gitondeka ibisubizo byose 37, ari bwo buryo bwonyine bukwiye bwo kubikora.
Formula
Ibibazo
Oya. Buri tega rifite agaciro gateganyijwe kamwe. Ihindagurika rinini risobanura ihindagurika rigari rizengurutse ako gaciro.
Amatega yishyura kimwe ku kindiitegaItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindiUmutuku/umukara, itabangikanye/ibangikanye, minini/mito. Imibare 18, ryishyura 1:1.Soma byose →, kuri σ ≈ 1 kuri buri nite. Riba rito kurushaho hamwe na la partageitegekoLa partageItegeko ry'Igifaransa: iyo zeru isohotse, kimwe cya kabiri cy'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi kirasubizwa. Rigabanya inyungu ya kazino kuri ayo matega kabiri, ikagera kuri 1,35%.Soma byose →, inanoza impuzandengo.
Inyungu iteganyijwe ni imwe kuri buri dolari; ihindagurika rigira ingaruka gusa ku buryo amafaranga kazino yinjiza adahwanye, kandi kazino ifite abakinnyi ibihumbi byo kubiringaniza.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Abakinnyi babiri buri wese atega $1 kuri buri zunguruka mu mazunguruka 100 ku ruziga rw'i Burayi, umwe buri gihe ku mutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose →, undi buri gihe kuri 17. Ni nde ufite amahirwe menshi yo kuba ari imbere ku iherezo?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Umukinnyi wa 17: 50,9%, ugereranyije na 35,5% ku mutuku. Bombi bahomba $2,70 ku mpuzandengo.
Umutuku: umukinnyi aba ari imbere iyo atsinze 51 cyangwa kurenza muri 100, buri imwe ku mahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → ya 18/37. Ikwirakwira rya binomial ritanga 35,5%, naho intsinzi 50 neza, kuringanira, izindi 7,7%.
Umubare 17: buri ntsinzi igarura $36, bityo intsinzi ebyiri (−$28) ntizihagije naho eshatu (+$8) zirahagije. Amahirwe yo gufata gatatu cyangwa kurenza mu mazunguruka 100 kuri 1/37 ni 50,9%.
Umukinnyi wa straight up aba ari imbere kenshi, ariko ibisubizo birasimbuka cyane: gufata kumwe kurenzeho cyangwa kubuzeho guhindura igisubizo ho $36, kandi abakinnyi bari inyuma akenshi baba bari inyuma cyane kurushaho. Bollman (2024) atanga imibare y'Abanyamerika, 26,5% na 49,2%.
Akanya k'urwenya

Igihombo giteganyijwe kimwe. Kimwe muri byo kibikubwira mu ijwi riranguruye.
Inkomoko
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.