Kwegerana mu Gihe Kirekire: Itegeko ry'Imibare Minini muri Roulette
Uko impuzandengo igenda yegera −2,70%, n'impamvu bitwara igihe kirekire kurusha uko umuntu yabikeka.
Igihombo cy'impuzandengo kuri buri zunguruka cyegera −1/37 uko amazunguruka yiyongera, n'ikwirakwira rigabanuka nka 1/√N. Nyuma y'amazunguruka 1.000 ku mutuku, impuzandengo ubusanzwe iba iri muri ±3% y'iyo iteganyijwe.
Itegeko ry'imibare minini
Impuzandengo igenda ibarwa y'amatega yigenga yegera agaciro gateganyijweimibareAgaciro gateganyijweIgisubizo mpuzandengo kuri buri tega mu gihe kirekire. −1/37 y'itega kuri buri tega risanzwe ry'i Burayi.Soma byose →. Nyuma y'amazunguruka N y'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi rya initeamafarangaIniteItega ry'ibanze uburyo cyangwa umukinnyi akoresha. Impererekane z'amatega zisobanurwa mu nite kugira ngo zikoreshwe ku meza ayo ari yo yose.Soma byose → imwe, igisubizo cy'impuzandengo kuri buri zunguruka gifite agaciro gateganyijwe ka −1/37 n'ikinyuranyo gisanzweimibareIkinyuranyo gisanzweUmuzi wa kare w'ihindagurika; intera isanzwe y'igisubizo uvuye ku gaciro gateganyijwe.Soma byose → cya 1/√N. Kuri N = 100, iryo kwirakwira ni 10% by'itega, hafi incuro enye z'ikimenyetso cya 2,7%. Kuri N = 1.000 ni 3,2%, hafi kungana n'ikimenyetso. Kuri N = 10.000 ni 1%, maze inyungu ya kazino ikagaragara neza. Inyungu ya kazino ntigaragara mu mukino umwe, ariko mu mwaka wose ntishidikanywaho.
Ikigera ahantu hamwe n'ikitahagera
Impuzandengo kuri buri zunguruka igera ahantu hamwe. Igiteranyo cyo si uko: kirushaho kwitarura zeru uko N yiyongera, ku mpuzandengo hafi 2,7% bya N, n'ikwirakwira rya √N hafi yaho. Umukinnyi wakinnye amazunguruka 10.000 ku $10 ateganyijwe kuba yarahombye $2.700, wongereho cyangwa ukuremo $1.000. Igipimo kigenda kibarwa cy'imitukuraitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose → kimaze igihe kinini cyarahagaze hafi ya 48,65%; amafaranga asigaye yo ntaho yahagaze.
- p10 −$440
- p25 −$280
- mediane −$140
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$140
Impamvu ibyo umuntu yibwira bipfa
Abantu bategereza ko inyungu ya kazino igaragara vuba kuko 2,70% byumvikana nk'ibintu byinshi, kandi bagategereza ko uruhererekane rurerure “ruzaringanira” kuko itegeko ry'imibare mininiimibareItegeko ry'imibare mininiImpuzandengo y'ibisubizo byigenga yegera agaciro gateganyijwe uko umubare w'amagerageza wiyongera.Soma byose → rivuga ko impuzandengo zigera ahantu hamwe. Ibyo bitekerezo byombi bibeshya ku rugero: inyungu ya kazino ni nto ugereranyije n'ihindagurikaimibareIhindagurikaIgipimo cy'uko ibisubizo bikwirakwira kure y'agaciro gateganyijwe. Riri hejuru kuri straight up, hasi ku matega yishyura kimwe ku kindi.Soma byose → ry'izunguruka rimwe (σ = inite 1 ugereranyije na EV = 0,027), bityo bisaba (1/0,027)² ≈ amazunguruka 1.400 kugira ngo igaragare ku rugero rwa sigma imwe. Kandi kuba impuzandengo igera ahantu hamwe ntibisubiza igiteranyo inyuma; bituma gusa ihindagurika ryabayeho riba agace gato.
Kugera ahantu hamwe ku yandi matega
Ku straight upitegaStraight upUmubare umwe, yishyura 35:1.Soma byose → σ = 5,84, bityo ibarura rimwe ritanga (5,84/0,027)² ≈ amazunguruka 47.000 kugira ngo inyungu ya kazino igere kuri sigma imwe. Umukinnyi wa straight up ashobora gukina imyaka myinshi inyungu ya kazino itaratandukanywa n'amahirwe mu nyandiko ze bwite, nyamara yishyura neza 2,70% nk'umukinnyi utega ku mutuku uyibona mu byumweru bike.
Icyo bivuze ku isuzuma ry'uburyo
Umuntu wese uvuga ko uburyo runaka bukora yagombye kubyerekana ku mazunguruka 10.000 cyangwa arenga, afite impuzandengo nziza yanditswe. Ku mazunguruka 1.000, impuzandengo nziza ku itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ni ikintu kiba rimwe mu gatanu niba nta buryo bukora; ku mazunguruka 100 ni hafi nko gutera igiceri. Amagerageza yo kuri uru rubuga akina imikino 2.000 y'uburebure wahisemo mu isegonda imwe, kandi ibyo ni ibimenyetso birusha ubuhamya ubwo ari bwo bwose.
Formula
Ibibazo
AmahirweimibareAmahirweAmahirwe y'igisubizo, kuva kuri 0 kugeza kuri 1 cyangwa kuva kuri 0% kugeza kuri 100%. Umubare umwe: 1/37 = 2,70%.Soma byose → yo kongera kuba imbere agenda agabanuka yegera zeru uko ukina. Igiteranyo kigenda kimanuka nta mbibi.
Oya. Risobanura ko ihindagurika ryabayeho riba agace gato k'icyitegererezo kinini.
Ku itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi, hafi 10.000 mbere y'uko inyungu ya kazino igaragara neza. Kuri straight up, hafi 50.000.
Kwishimisha n'Imibare
Banza ubigerageze ubwawe. Buri gisubizo kirapfunyitse; ugifungure igihe witeguye.
Inshuti ebyiri zikina ibice 20 by'umukino uboneyeimibareUmukino utabogamyeUmukino aho nta ruhande rufite inyungu: buri tega rifite agaciro gateganyijwe kangana na zeru.Soma byose →, gutera igiceri cyangwa umutukuitegaUmutukuItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umutuku. Mu Gifaransa: rouge.Soma byose → uhanganye n'umukaraitegaUmukaraItega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi ku mibare 18 y'umukara. Mu Gifaransa: noir.Soma byose → zeruuruzigaZeruAkazu kamwe k'icyatsi katafatwa n'itega ryishyura kimwe ku kindi, irya dazeni cyangwa iry'inkingi; ni ho inyungu ya kazino ikomoka. Nanone: zeru imwe, 0.Soma byose → zisubizwa, kandi zibika amanota uko agenda. Bara ibice buri imwe imaze iri imbere (kunganya bibarirwa uwari uyoboye mbere gato). Ni ikihe gishoboka kurushaho: ko kuyobora kugabanywa ibice 10 kuri 10, cyangwa ko inshuti imwe iyobora ibice byose 20?
Erekana igisubizo
Igisubizo Inshuti imwe iyobora ibice byose 20 birashoboka cyane kurushaho: 35,2%, ubaze inshuti iyo ari yo yose, ugereranyije na 6,1% ku kugabana kungana kwa 10 kuri 10.
Amahirwe y'uko amanota y'umukino uboneye angana nyuma y'ibice 2k ni u = C(2k, k)/2²ᵏ: 0,246 nyuma y'ibice 10 na 0,176 nyuma ya 20. Igisubizo kizwi, itegeko rya arc-sine, kivuga ko amahirwe y'uko inshuti imwe yavuzwe iyobora ibice 2k neza muri 2n ari u(2k) × u(2n − 2k).
Kuyobora ibice byose 20: u(20) × u(0) = 0,176 kuri buri nshuti, 35,2% ku iyo ari yo yose. Kugabana kungana: u(10) × u(10) = 0,246² = 6,1%, ari ko kugabana gushoboka gake kurusha ukundi kose.
Bityo mu mukino uboneye kuyobora ntigukunze guhinduka. Umukinnyi wamaze ijoro ryose ari imbere, cyangwa ari inyuma, nta kidasanzwe yabonye, kandi ntibigira icyo bivuga ku ruziga cyangwa ku bumenyi. Epstein (2013) atanga iryo tegeko rimwe ku mikino miremire: kimwe cya kabiri cy'igihe uruhande rufite amahirwe menshi ruyobora hejuru ya 85% by'umukino.
Akanya k'urwenya
Impuzandengo igera ahantu hamwe. Igiteranyo cyo kirigendera.
Inkomoko
- Bernoulli, J. Ars Conjectandi.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.